He hit this prop in 9/15 games last season, but it was 9/12 when he received 10+ carries.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS MIANA DOLPHINS GAME MAC
New England’s offensive line is also rock-solid, so Mac will have plenty of time to throw.ĭamien Harris Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards 7 of his 13 interceptions last season happened in three games against excellent secondaries, so it’s not indicative of Mac, especially considering it was his rookie year. For PFF’s turnover worthy play rate metric, only Herbert, Brady, Rodgers, Kyler, and Burrow had a lower percentage. When Mac does air it out, he seldom takes chances and possesses an accurate arm. It’s not a radical game plan, as Bill Belichick loves to frequently run the ball. With this uncertainty looming, I expect New England to favor the run game and prevent Mac from throwing more than 30 pass attempts unless necessary. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels resides with the Raiders now, so the Patriots offense enters a new phase.
I expect Tua to complete multiple passes of at least 35 yards here. Plus, JC Jackson’s departure once again aids the likelihood of this prop hitting. Tua also hit the over for this mark in 8/13 games last season, and that was before adding perhaps the best deep threat in the NFL. It’s only a matter of time before these two connect for a huge chunk of yards. Mike McDaniel will be eager to establish the Tua-Tyreek connection, so look for plenty of downfield attempts between the pair. Tua’s deep accuracy is also underrated, as PFF ranked him 1st in adjusted completion percentage for 20+ yard throws. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are two of the fastest receivers in the NFL, and they can turn any short catch into a huge gain. Tua Tagovailoa Longest Completion Over 34.5 Yards Tyreek’s job will also be easier since the Patriots lost elite cornerback JC Jackson, who ranked 5th in pass coverage according to PFF. He’s going to burn the Patriots in the open field and find the end zone through his elite speed.
Tyreek thrives in the slot and will excel in this system. Mike McDaniel is an offense-oriented head coach who brings a West Coast passing scheme, which emphasizes slants, crossing routes, and utilizing horizontal space. In addition to his Week 1 accomplishments, Tyreek has torched the Patriots for five touchdowns in four career games against them. The only game where he failed to score was in 2019 where he played 18% of snaps due to an injury. Over the past five season openers, Tyreek has scored five touchdowns. Tyreek’s Week 1 performances have consistently been impressive since his second year in the league. This one is my favorite player prop this game.
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